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Exploration & Appraisal Activity Survey

This section covers the overall activity surveys and specific points for operations on the UKCS, including relevant guidelines.

Each year, Oil and Gas UK surveys exploration &  appraisal activity on the UK continental shelf (UKCS) jointly with BERR (formerly DTI). This provides both a summary of the past year’s activities and a forecast of potential exploration and appraisal activity over the next three years. This is done in conjunction with a full UKCS basin activity survey.

What are the data used for and who has access to it?

The data are used for forecasting future demand in exploration and appraisal activity and identifying any areas of concern which can be investigated to improve processes and ensure this activity is optimised.  The data are publicly available (in collated and analysed form) through published reports and presentations.  The exploration and appraisal elements are included in the Oil & Gas UK annual activity survey.

Key messages from 2007 activity survey (main and E&A)

Production

  • There was a 5% decline in production in 2007 primarily due to delays in project start-up

Expenditure & Investment

  • Whilst the increasing oil price is promoting activity in the UKCS, this is accompanied by cost inflation, estimated at 15-20% in 2007.
  • The investment outlook is expected to be sustained until 2010
  • Total costs (of finding, development and operations) reached $35/boe making the UKCS one of the most expensive oil provinces in the world

Potential

  • UKCS still has substantial potential with significant reserves yet-to-find (15-25 billion boe).

Decommissioning

  • Around 45% of infrastructure could be decommissioned by 2020 unless current activity is sustained.  By maintaining investor confidence, decommissioning could be delayed by 10-15 years.

Prospects

  • The majority of prospects lie in the Central North Sea, however, there are potentially large volumes to be discovered in Atlantic Margin region
  • Around half of discovered prospects in 2007 have risked mean volumes of <20mmboe

Drilling activity

·        Exploration & Appraisal drilling activity last year was maintained at a high level in 2007 (32 Exploration wells spudded with 2 sidetracks and 36 appraisal wells spudded with 41 sidetracks) and this level of activity is projected to continue in 2008/2009.

·        The exploration success rate was around 40% in 2007 and 13 discoveries were reported to Oil & Gas UK finding volumes of between 380 and 420mmboe

  • Little activity is occurring in Atlantic Margin (where both the rewards and risks are higher), but this is due to increase in 2008 when frontier licence commitments take effect
  • Activity in the Southern Gas Basin has increased by 20% since 2006
  • Appraisal wells will mostly be confined to Central North Sea until 2008

Constraints

  • Rig rates continue to increase and the cost/ limited mobile rig availability will continue to constrain activity
  • Seismic processing capacity/ vessel availability also apply constraints to Exploration and Appraisal activity

 

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